Dealer Bust Odds by Upcard
The dealer busts most often with a 6 or a 5 showing, about 42% of the time, and least often with an ace: about 12%, or 17% once the dealer has checked for blackjack and does not have one. Those odds are the reason basic strategy stands on stiff hands against small cards and hits them against big ones.
Dealer stands on soft 17: how the dealer's hand ends
Chance of each final result for each upcard, before the dealer checks for blackjack.
| Upcard | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Blackjack | Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 14.0% | 13.5% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 35.4% | 0 |
| 3 | 13.5% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 37.4% | 0 |
| 4 | 13.0% | 12.6% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 11.1% | 39.4% | 0 |
| 5 | 12.2% | 12.2% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 41.6% | 0 |
| 6 | 16.5% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 42.3% | 0 |
| 7 | 36.9% | 13.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 26.2% | 0 |
| 8 | 12.9% | 35.9% | 12.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 24.5% | 0 |
| 9 | 12.0% | 12.0% | 35.1% | 12.0% | 6.1% | 22.8% | 0 |
| 10 | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 34.2% | 3.5% | 21.2% | 7.7% |
| A | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 5.4% | 11.5% | 30.8% |
Dealer hits soft 17: how the dealer's hand ends
Chance of each final result for each upcard, before the dealer checks for blackjack.
| Upcard | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | Blackjack | Bust |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 13.0% | 13.7% | 13.1% | 12.6% | 12.0% | 35.7% | 0 |
| 3 | 12.6% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 37.7% | 0 |
| 4 | 12.2% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 39.7% | 0 |
| 5 | 11.8% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 10.9% | 41.8% | 0 |
| 6 | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 10.6% | 43.9% | 0 |
| 7 | 36.9% | 13.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 26.2% | 0 |
| 8 | 12.9% | 35.9% | 12.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 24.5% | 0 |
| 9 | 12.0% | 12.0% | 35.1% | 12.0% | 6.1% | 22.8% | 0 |
| 10 | 11.1% | 11.1% | 11.1% | 34.2% | 3.5% | 21.2% | 7.7% |
| A | 5.7% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 6.6% | 13.9% | 30.8% |
Why 5 and 6 are the dealer's worst cards
The dealer has no choices: they must hit until they reach 17. With a 5 or 6 showing, the most likely next card is a 10, which leaves a stiff 15 or 16 that must be hit again. That second hit busts more often than not. With a 7 or higher showing, a 10 underneath already makes 17 or more, so the dealer stands far more often without risk.
What the dealer checking for blackjack changes
In games with a hole card, a dealer showing a 10 or an ace checks it for blackjack before anyone plays. If you are still playing, the dealer does not have blackjack, and the bust odds are higher than the table shows:
- 10 showing: 23.0%, whether or not the dealer hits soft 17. With a 10 up, the dealer can never hold a soft 17.
- Ace showing: 16.7% with the dealer standing on soft 17, 20.1% when hitting it.
What hitting soft 17 changes
A dealer who hits soft 17 takes another card on hands like A,6. That only matters when a soft 17 comes up, which is most likely with a 6 or an ace showing. With a 6, the bust chance rises from 42.3% to 43.9%; with an ace, from 11.5% to 13.9%. It also turns some 17s into 18 to 21, which is why the rule is slightly worse for the player overall. The dealer hits soft 17 chart lists the plays it changes.
Your own chance of busting when you hit
For a hard total, the chance that one more card takes you over 21, from a full deck:
| Your total | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bust chance | 31% | 38% | 46% | 54% | 62% | 69% | 77% | 85% | 92% |
That is why hard 12 against a dealer 4 to 6 is a stand: you bust 31% of the time by hitting, while the dealer busts about 39% to 42% of the time if you leave it to them.
How these numbers are calculated
Every outcome is worked out from card probabilities with an infinite deck: each card is as likely as in a fresh shoe. The figures are checked in this site's tests against a brute-force run of 300,000 dealer hands per upcard. In a real 6 or 8 deck shoe the cards already dealt shift them slightly.